Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.215375 20.761740 23.511435 26.698347 30.287267 34.200815 38.788637
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.313216 17.711754 21.666020 26.594873 32.561558 39.538094 48.300699
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.530707 16.340844 20.989118 27.054905 34.737448 44.117615 56.410833
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.043327 15.088386 20.234757 27.227426 36.441585 48.124079 64.009321
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.753622 13.882558 19.332009 27.001532 37.460124 51.158381 70.383044
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.866193 13.095120 18.864414 27.244736 39.028535 54.915677 77.846904
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.322883 12.711901 18.881505 28.102007 41.428861 59.867101 87.154205
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.523730 11.870901 18.161042 27.822962 42.161465 62.496120 93.315682
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.527763 10.636105 16.752888 26.405401 41.105585 62.463063 95.593276
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.188123 10.371833 16.758808 27.078198 43.152497 67.001731 104.748945
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.895522 10.150887 16.803615 27.795113 45.284827 71.751911 114.441421
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.437601 9.618525 16.312333 27.620957 46.000659 74.365315 120.979276
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.938791 8.984543 15.623741 27.101507 46.167970 76.191421 126.486798
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.589926 8.576334 15.273702 27.108180 47.177993 79.388593 134.331835
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.352678 8.340002 15.188089 27.538952 48.892193 83.774384 144.280661
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.095333 8.043918 14.974164 27.726872 50.195212 87.539199 153.383556
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.795223 7.641798 14.540878 27.492984 50.745024 90.059889 160.509966
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.594193 7.407904 14.388539 27.741709 52.137639 94.050750 170.295207
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.495787 7.362742 14.575332 28.613164 54.677587 100.119795 183.933546
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.250504 7.006897 14.155857 28.329511 55.102950 102.515934 191.255721
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.883006 6.372709 13.160138 26.887660 53.302231 100.869189 191.304056
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.797660 6.312145 13.270018 27.571987 55.507797 106.500446 204.684547
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.721623 6.264487 13.400531 28.301146 57.832304 112.447954 218.902450